Question: What are my odds of getting accepted to medical school, based on my GPA and MCAT scores?
Answer: In 2021-2022, the AAMC reported 60,334 total applicants to US medical schools. Of those, 21,942 matriculated*. That translates to a 36% acceptance rate. Not too shabby, considering medicine is such a competitive professional path. Worth keeping in mind: these numbers do reflect a certain level of self-selection: applicants who are willing to put themselves through the hassle and cost of applying probably possess the basic qualifications. But if you’re a “glass-half-empty” kind of person, you’ve probably already noted that about 64% of applicants do not make it into medical school.
So how can you realistically gauge your odds of getting accepted to medical school? Glad you asked! The AAMC offers a handy grid that can help you determine how similar applicants in years past have fared with your MCAT and GPA scores: https://www.aamc.org/system/files/2021-11/2021_FACTS_Table_A-23.pdf
But remember, the AAMC employs a holistic approach to applications*. Don’t ever assume that your numbers predetermine your outcome. Underperformers still have a chance and overperformers still get rejected.
Everything in your application matters. An experienced medical school admissions editor can help you put your best foot forward.